Radiatian Presidential Election, LET 52

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Radiatian Presidential Election, LET 48
Radiatian Federation
← LET 48 July 22 LET 52 LET 56 →

All 483 electoral votes of the Electoral College
242 electoral votes needed to win
Turnout49% (voting eligible)
  Fyoderov.jpg Negasi.jpg
Nominee Gregori Fyoderov Samuel Negasi
Party Liberal-Conservative Party Social Democratic Union
Home state Jingyurin Chongluntz
Running mate Angela Pavlovic Josko Ivers
Electoral vote 274 209
States carried 25 12 + FCT
Popular vote 48,395,134 45,548,361
Percentage 51% 48%

Electoralcollege52.png
Presidential election results map. Blue denotes states won by
Fyoderov/Pavlovic, and Red denotes those won by Negasi/Ivers.
Numbers indicate electoral votes allotted to the winner of each state.

President before election

Keldon Silviu
Social Democratic Union

Elected President

Gregori Fyoderov
Liberal-Conservative Party

The Radiatian Presidential Election of LET 52 was held on July 22nd LET 52. The Liberal-Conservative candidate, Senator Gregori Fyoderov won the election over Social Democratic nominee, incumbent Vice President Samuel Negasi.

Although Fyoderov was the LCP's nominee in LET 44 and lost the election, a series of events during the Liberal-Conservative Party primaries, along with Fyoderov's superior campaign organisation, saw him gain the party's nomination, running as the "new" Fyoderov and on a platform that combined classical liberalism, social liberalism as well as a promise to restore law and order following a recent spike in crime rates.

While the Negasi campaign was well organised and well financed - with Negasi actually having a larger operating budget throughout the campaign, he was unable to shake the fact that he was the Vice President of Keldon Silviu, the incumbent President whose approval ratings were tanking.

Fyoderov polled ahead from the beginning, although by the end of the campaign Samuel Negasi had almost caught up to him in the nationwide popular vote and had a very serious chance at winning the election due to the strength of the "New Left" coalition, in conjunction with a strong showing in the televised debates and a clever advertising campaign.

In spite of Negasi's win in the key battleground state of Alayenia, Gregori Fyoderov won important victories in the states of Xegfause, South Corpshire and Radia, the latter two having previously been considered safe "red states".

Although Gregori Fyoderov won the election 274 electoral votes to 209, Samuel Negasi's clever campaign made the election considerably closer than previously expected.

Because the end result was so close, there was no evidence of a coattail effect in the Parliamentary election which was held simultaneously. While the Liberal-Conservative Party managed to slightly increase their majority in the Federal Assembly, the Social Democratic Union also saw an increased majority in the Senate.

Background

The Radiatian Federation had been in a recession between LET 46 and LET 49 following the Exegrad Stockmarket Crash, and although incumbent President Keldon Silviu was not blamed, his approval ratings fell as he was perceived to have handled the economy poorly. When the economy began to recover shortly after Silviu's narrow re-election in LET 48, the Social Democratic Union subsequently made gains in the mid-term elections of LET 50, gaining control of the Radiatian Federal Senate.

As Silviu's term neared an end, it was clear that he was unlikely to achieve any of the agenda he had set out to achieve eight years earlier and, although briefly popular for his handling of the Tressian Gulf War and for hosting peace talks between Poldania and Merrina, his approval ratings fell to the lowest of any President since Derro Vahnsehn.

Furthermore, Silviu was blamed for a perceived increase in crime, a perception that many Radiatians felt was confirmed when riots broke out in Das Engel during the campaign season, forcing Silviu to deploy the RFA to keep order.

While Silviu was unable to run again due to term limits, polls and studies suggested that had he been able to run again he would have lost the election in a landslide, such was his unpopularity. It is theorised by some political scientists that Silviu could have had a "negative coattail" effect on Social Democrats running in LET 52, including Samuel Negasi.

Nominations

Social Democratic Union

Social Democratic candidates:

Samuel Negasi was the frontrunner in the Social Democratic race from the beginning, given his record as a four term Premier of Chongluntz, his term as Chairman of the Federal Council and his visibility during his 8 years as Vice President of the Radiatian Federation, during which time he had had to be Acting President, most notably in LET 48 when Keldon Silviu was shot and wounded at his re-inauguration.

Despite this Negasi faced a considerable challenge from Midgard Premier Owen Warsazeck, who did well in early primaries, and New Vashura Senator and former Foreign Affairs Minister Josko Ivers, a conservative Social Democrat with appeal to rural Radiatia.

The biggest obstacle that Negasi faced in gaining the nomination was that most Social Democrats agreed that Negasi's closeness with Keldon Silviu was toxic, and that Silviu himself was toxic to the party's image. Warsazeck argued that Negasi was too economically moderate, and was alienating working class voters by his support of freemarket and "New Left" policies. Ivers also argued that Negasi was too socially liberal which alienated voters in the heartland and lost the party the support of moderates.

Negasi ultimately won the nomination, but chose Josko Ivers as his running mate to balance the ticket and in an attempt to use Ivers' influence to win over moderate voters who were not likely to vote for Negasi on his own.

Liberal-Conservative Party

Liberal-Conservative candidates:

Alexander Ivanov was the odds-on favourite to win the nomination, having been nominated for the Vice Presidency in LET 48 and having essentially campaigned since losing that election.

Although Vladimir Perry and Angela Pavlovic saw early victories in the primaries, appealing to libertarian and moderate voters respectively, polls showed that Ivanov was all but guaranteed to win the nomination.

Former nominee Gregori Fyoderov also ran, after having his image restored thanks to a successful Senate career and a number of appearances on television talk shows. Initially it was assumed that Fyoderov was running for the Vice Presidency and had no real hope of gaining the nomination after losing the election in LET 44.

However, shortly before the Alayenia Primary, an article published in The Daily Tabloid alleged that Ivanov had a secret half-dog, half-human son and was involved in a pornographic film featuring scenes of bestiality.

In the scandal that later became known as "Dog-gate", Ivanov admitted that the latter part was true, and that when he was 19 he had been forced to take part in such a film in order to repay his debts to the Exegrad Mafia.

As a result, Gregori Fyoderov surprisingly won the Alayenia primary - beating the state's two 'sons', Vladimir Perry and Alexander Ivanov. Perry subsequently dropped out of the race, leaving a three-horse race between Fyoderov, Pavlovic and Ivanov.

Fearing that having both herself and Fyoderov on the ballot would split the liberal vote, Angela Pavlovic dropped out of the race in exchange for a joint ticket with Gregori Fyoderov, in order to prevent the more conservative and scandal-tainted Alexander Ivanov from winning the nomination.

After the results of "Super Saturday" it was clear that Fyoderov was the LCP's nominee for President once again.