Pavonistadian presidential election, 2017

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Pavonistadian presidential election, 2017
Pavonistade
← 2013 March 17, 2017 (2017-03-17) 2021 →

261 seats of the Parliament
131 seats needed for a majority

  Peter MacKay crop.JPG Charlie Baker cropped.jpg Eric trump.jpg
Nominee Kal Simpsen Eric Oppenheim Alexander Levant
Party Republican Democratic Conservative
Running mate Aurelia Robbens Teringtor Jehvore Emmanuel Gilespie
Electoral vote 111 52 51

  Michiel-van-hulten-1409749761.jpg Viktor Orbán 2016-02-17.jpg Henk Krol 2013.jpg
Nominee Calvin Almor Luis Oblast Jules Capaldi
Party Liberal Green Pavonistade First
Running mate Cayman Ohakim Azhar Khan Wiliemn Djakeulia
Electoral vote 33 13 1

President before election

Eric Oppenheim
Democratic

President-elect

Kal Simpsen
Republican

The Pavonistadian presidential election of 2017 was the 31st presidential election in Pavonistade and was held on March 17, 2017. The incumbent President, Eric Oppenheim, who succeeded Mattheu Azurite after his death, was eligible to run in the election.

Under the first-past-the-post voting system used in Pavonistade, the political party that secures the most constituencies (and the most seats in Parliament) will be the party that will form either a minority or majority government. The leader of such a party will automatically become President-elect and their running mate will automatically become Vice President-elect. As consistent with previous elections, compulsory voting will be enforced on election day.

Eric Oppenheim was the first to announce a presidential bid for the 2017 elections, declaring on April 17, 2016 of his intentions to run in the election. The incumbent Vice President Teringtor Jehvore have confirmed a vice presidential bid on April 24, 2016. The Conservative Party was the last political party to finalize its presidential and vice presidential candidates, electing Alexander Levant and Emmanuel Gilespie in a party convention for the respective positions.

New presidential and vice-presidential candidates have been elected to represent several substantial political parties. The Liberal Party elected the same presidential nominee with a different running mate, while the Democratic Party and Pavonistade First maintained their candidates from the 2013 election.

The Republican Party secured more constituencies than any other party, causing Kal Simpsen to become the first foreign-born President-elect of Pavonistade. The 2017 presidential election was the first since 2001 to result in the formation of a minority government, as well as a government led by the Republican Party. The election also saw one of the most significant upsets since 19XX, as most polls suggest a Liberal victory and a future Liberal minority government, and it is the first election since 1989 in which none of the federal parties are represented by female presidential candidates.

Simpsen and his running mate Aurelia Robbens were inaugurated, respectively as President and Vice President, on April 28.

Background

2013 presidential election

The incumbent ruling party, the Democratic Party, maintained a very small majority in the Parliament following the 2013 election. It held 134 seats out of 261 (50.3%), compared to 148 seats out 256 (57.8%) in the 2009 elections.

Growing support for both left-wing parties (Liberal and Green Parties) as well as right-wing parties (Republican Party, Conservative Party, and Pavonistade First) was important in challenging the majority held by the center-right Democratic Party. Left-wing parties gathered support due to desire in certain provinces for new social policies such as the protection of transgender people. Right-wing parties saw increased influence due to the perception of excessively-liberal social change and excessively-tightened economic oversight.

Death of Mattheu Azurite

Mattheu Azurite, the Democratic president re-elected in 2013, suffered from an ischemic stroke on February 19, 2015. He remained in coma until his death three days later on February 22. Then-Vice President Eric Oppenheim was inaugurated President the day after Azurite's death, which is considered to have negatively impacted the reputation of the Democratic Party and later approval ratings of Oppenheim. The extent of the negative impact is disputed by numerous Pavonistadian political scientists, believing that it caused anywhere from slight, temporary distrust to elimination of the chances of another Democratic majority.

Issues

The Ministry of Finance reported that Pavonistade was in recession since October 1, 2015. It released a report on the aforementioned date for the third quarter (July to September) of the Pavonistadian fiscal year, documenting a negative growth of 0.4% and the second consecutive quarterly contraction in 2015. This the second recession since 2008 to occur during federal Democratic governance in the 21st century. Stock market declines in multiple countries around Esquarium contributed to further economic uncertainties.

As with previous elections, multiculturalism became a controversial topic. It has been tied in some way with political correctness, the Centrist Revolution and integration into Pavonistadian society, all of which emerged to be highly-debated issues. Right-wing parties claimed that there is excessive political correctness, excessive immigration and acceptance of refugees, unnecessary effects stemming from the Centrist Revolution (e.g. attempts to curb microaggressions), and destruction of Pavonistadian culture as a result of multiculturalism. Left-wing parties claim the contrary, believing that negative impacts cited by right-wing parties are exaggerated and that multiculturalism is an essential element of Pavonistadian society.

Leadership Conventions

Leadership conventions in Pavonistade are held to select a presidential and vice-presidential nominee for the next election. The closed list process is separate from other leadership conventions that select party chairpeople, therefore the conventions to elect running mates are also referred to as nominee conventions in Pavonistade. Leadership conventions may be referred to, albeit rarely, as closed primaries. Only a certain amount of delegates are selected by a multi-stage sampling process to participate and vote in leadership conventions.

Democratic Party

The Democratic Party held a leadership convention on July 1, 2016 in which the incumbent President and Vice President, respecively Eric Oppenheim and Teringtor Jehvore, were selected as running mates without any opposition. Some Democratic Party members have hinted of a potential bid for presidency but have not contemplated a bid. The only other candidate to announce a presidency bid, Democratic chairperson Valdis Higgs, withdrew prior to the convention to allow "firm unity among party members".

     = Winner
     = Withdrawn

Democratic Convention Outcome
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date Delegate Support Percentage
Charlie Baker cropped.jpg Eric Oppenheim (incumbent president)
+Teringtor Jehvore
April 17, 2016 27,319 100%
Governor Corbett cropped portrait May 2014.jpg Valdis Higgs (Democratic chairman) May 1, 2016 Endorsed Eric Oppenheim
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date 27,319 100%

Conservative Party

The Conservative Party held its leadership convention on September 18, 2016. Presidential nominee Alexander Levant and vice presidential nominee Emmanuel Gilespie defeated other running mates, including 2013 nominees Robeurt Martek and Zachary Imestoch. Levant secured his candidacy despite controversy around his politically-charged and nationalist rhetoric. The Conservative Party was the last party to nominate and finalize its candidates for the 2017 election.

     = Winner
     = Eliminated

Conservative Convention Outcome
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date Delegate Support Percentage
Eric trump.jpg Alexander Levant (businessman)
+Emmanuel Gilespie
July 8, 2016 12,083 48.3%
Bohuslav Svoboda 2013.JPG Robeurt Martek (2013 Conservative nominee)
+Zachary Imestoch
June 20, 2016 9,982 39.9%
Scott P. Brown.jpg Alexander Taervins (Eastern Islands governor)
+Kallum Granby
August 1, 2016 2,952 11.8%
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date 25,017 100%

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party held its leadership convention on August 5, 2016. Calvin Almor, the Liberal Party chairperson, was re-elected as the Liberal presidential candidate, though his running mate was Cayman Ohakim as opposed to Alexandra Persson in 2013; the latter was diagnosed with breast cancer. This marked the first time since 1997 that endorsement was given to a major party presidential candidate that did not retain their previous running mate.

     = Winner
     = Eliminated
     = Withdrawn

Liberal Convention Outcome
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date Delegate Support Percentage
Michiel-van-hulten-1409749761.jpg Calvin Almor (2013 Liberal nominee)
+Cayman Ohakim
May 5, 2016 8,427 38.1%
Mayor Alvin Brown.jpg Lukas Jonne (former mayor of Oktosis)
+Frederick Dirado
June 14, 2016 6,060 27.4%
Ebba.Busch.Thor.riksmotet2015.15d686.1710035.jpg Valerie Glavas (former Member of Parliament)
+Chance Lengge
July 3, 2016 5,286 23.9%
NeilNitinMukesh.jpg Ahmed Darbi (former Member of Parliament)
+Nikolas Naures
May 27, 2016 1,864 10.6%
Cristinakirchnermensaje2010.jpg Florence Hernandez (former Education Minister of Occidentia) May 12, 2016 Endorsed Calvin Almor
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date 22,117 100%

Republican Party

The Republican Party held its leadership convention on August 16, 2016. The 2013 Republican presidential candidate, Vanessa D'Artoise, did not run as a nominee. Kal Simpsen, a Luziycan-born party member, was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, making him the first foreign-born person to be nominated as a Pavonistadian presidential candidate.

     = Winner
     = Eliminated

Liberal Convention Outcome
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date Delegate Support Percentage
Peter MacKay crop.JPG Kal Simpsen (former Toloupum Sector governor)
+Aurelia Robbens
June 30, 2016 6,610 35.3%
Chuck Norris May 2015.jpg Raymond Mauriss (former navy lieutenant)
+Quentin Agapito
June 7, 2016 6,385 34.1%
Paavo Jehvore (former Deputy President under Jacquie Iatouqua)
+Luis Stroup
July 11, 2016 5,729 30.6%
Candidate Campaign Kickoff Date 18,724 100%

Minor Parties

Federal political parties that are represented in Parliament and lack official party status are referred to as minor parties. They do not fulfill the minimum requirement of holding either 10% of constituencies or 10% of the popular vote as set out by the Pavonistade Elections Act. Minor parties do not have access to certain privileges in Parliament or during election periods (e.g. participation in debates).

The leadership convention for the Green Party was held on July 30, 2016, and two candidates contended for nomination. Lyonna Urthules, the 2013 Green presidential candidate, did not run in the convention after she announced her retirement in December 2015. Luis Oblast was nominated as the Green presidential candidate for the 2017 election, with 5,274 delegate votes (54.5%) and running alongside vice presidential candidate Azhar Khan.

Pavonistade First held its leadership convention on August 25, 2016. Jules Capaldi, having contested for presidency in the 2013 election, was nominated without any opposition, making the Pavonistade First convention one of only two conventions for the 2017 election in which a nominee is unanimously elected (the other convention being that of the Democratic's). Capaldi received 3,773 delegate votes.

There are various political parties and independents that are contesting in the upcoming election.

Polls

Polling firm Date of polling Dem. Liberal Rep. Con. Green Pav. 1st Margin of error Sample size Lead
Kastor RD
28 February 2017 25.1 28.4 26.0 13.8 5.2 1.5 ±2.3 pp 2,000
2.4
The Incident
26 February 2017 24.5 26.9 26.8 14.3 5.5 2.0 ±2.4 pp 2,500
0.1
Pavonistade Sentinel
19 February 2017 26.4 26.6 27.3 13.9 4.5 1.3 ±2.4 pp 2,300
0.7
PAN
10 January 2017 25.3 28.4 25.8 13.6 5.7 1.2 ±2.4 pp 2,200
2.6
CiP
3 February 2017 24.8 26.7 27.2 14.7 4.8 1.8 ±2.4 pp 2,100
0.5
Kastor RD
31 January 2017 25.6 28.8 25.5 13.6 4.8 1.7 ±2.3 pp 2,000
3.2
Pavonistade Sentinel
24 January 2017 26.7 26.8 27.0 13.6 4.3 1.6 ±2.4 pp 2,200
0.2
The Incident
12 January 2017 25.0 26.5 26.6 14.7 5.4 1.8 ±2.3 pp 2,000
0.1
CiP
9 January 2017 25.4 27.1 26.8 14.5 4.5 1.7 ±2.3 pp 1,800
0.3
PAN
6 January 2017 25.7 28.6 25.4 13.4 5.5 1.4 ±2.4 pp 2,200
3.2
Initiation of campaign period (6 January, 2017)
Kastor RD
31 December 2016 25.8 29.5 25.2 13.8 4.4 1.3 ±2.3 pp 1,750
3.7
Pavonistade Sentinel
27 December 2016 26.5 27.2 26.8 13.9 4.1 1.5 ±2.4 pp 2,500
0.4
PAN
7 December 2016 25.5 29.2 24.7 13.7 5.1 1.8 ±2.5 pp 3,000
3.7
CiP
5 December 2016 25.1 27.7 26.3 14.8 4.6 1.5 ±2.4 pp 2,100
1.4
The Incident
2 December 2016 25.5 26.8 26.2 14.4 5.1 2.0 ±2.3 pp 1,800
0.6
Kastor RD
30 November 2016 26.1 30.2 24.3 13.3 4.7 1.4 ±2.1 pp 1,500
4.1
Pavonistade Sentinel
25 November 2016 26.2 27.5 26.6 14.2 4.3 1.2 ±2.2 pp 2,300
0.9
CiP
9 November 2016 25.4 28.9 25.3 13.4 5.2 1.8 ±2.3 pp 1,800
3.5
PAN
5 November 2016 25.9 29.7 24.6 13.5 4.8 1.5 ±2.6 pp 3,099
3.8
The Incident
2 November 2016 25.7 27.3 26.0 14.3 4.8 1.9 ±2.1 pp 1,500
1.3

Debates

Two major presidential debates are anticipated and are expected to be organized by the Pavonistadian Presidential Electoral Commission, or simply the Electoral Commission, a non-profit organization responsible for overseeing general elections in Pavonistade.

The Electoral Commission has established the eligibility requirements for participation and regulations for presidential debates. Since 1985, it mandates that a candidate may participate in a presidential debate if they are constitutionally eligible and if their political party has official party status, which is obtained if the party secures either 10% of all constituencies or 10% of the popular vote. It also determines the question format, either being closed (questions are derived from the moderator) or open (questions are derived from outside sources).

The hosts and locations for all presidential debates were formalized on January 31, 2016. It is expected that presidential debates are to be broadcast by a consortium of television networks. The candidates of all major federal parties have announced intentions to participate in all debates to be organized by the Electoral Commission.

Other debates may be organized for independent candidates and minor federal parties, or parties without official party status. Such debates are the responsibility of organizations other than the Electoral Commission.

Date Question
Format
Time Host Location Moderator Participants Broadcaster
27 January 2017 Closed 6:00 pm ST-9 Hilledge College Pavonistadeck, Capital Province Frederik Allain Calvin Almor
Alexander Levant
Eric Oppenheim
Kal Simpsen
PTV
3 March 2017 Open/Town Hall 6:00 pm ST-9 University of Forstazika Forstazika, Forstazika Province Amanda Deschamps Calvin Almor
Alexander Levant
Eric Oppenheim
Kal Simpsen
PBC

Results

Under a first-past-the-post voting system, a candidate or political party in a constituency that secures more votes than all other opponents wins the constituency. A constituency corresponds to one seat in Parliament. The political party that secures the most constituencies (and the most seats in Parliament) will become the national ruling party. It is possible for various electoral effects to occur, such as a candidate gaining more seats but less of the total popular vote than another candidate.

On election day, voting took place between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM PST.

Summary Table

e • d  Summary of Pavonistadian election results, 2017
Parties Votes % Seats +/-
Republican Party 12336141 31.1 111 +83
Democratic Party 9638850 24.3 52 -82
Conservative Party 7655547 19.3 51 +25
Liberal Party 8091874 20.4 33 -18
Green Party 1269314 3.2 13 -5
Pavonistade First 555325 1.4 1 -3
Invalid votes 118998 0.3 N/A
Total 39,666,049 100% 261

Analysis

The nomination of Alexander Levant as the Conservative Party presidential candidate came across as surprising for many Pavonistadian political analysts, believing that his controversial rhetoric would have a significant negative impact in his campaign. Kal Simpsen, the Republican Party candidate, also had a history of controversial rhetoric and politically-charged comments. However, it was expected that the populist approach Levant and Simpsen had taken would garner popularity among right-wing delegates.

A substantial increase in the usage of social media by all major federal parties had been noted. Political use of social media platforms such as Twitter is not new, but it is thought that the federal parties, particularly Liberals and Republicans, were prioritizing online communication in order to interact and appeal for support through newer strategies.

Starting in November 2016, the Never Left campaign was launched by Republicans while the Anything But Right campaign was launched by Liberals. The former was supported by Conservatives while the latter was supported by Democrats, although there was no direct cooperation between two ideologically-similar parties that each campaign had. University of Gordhoss professor James Adelaide put forth the idea that the major federal parties were resorting to tactical voting, which is likely to be emphasized in the 2017 election. It is believed that both the Never Left and Anything But Right campaigns may amplify the spoiler effect as citizens are enticed to support any parties or groups that do not associate with their opponents.