Midrasian general election, 2017

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Midrasian general election, 2017
Midrasia
← 2013 14 September 2017 2021 →

All 600 seats in the Public Assembly
301 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 54,619,057 (76.2%)

  First party Second party Third party
  MDRUDA.png
Leader Melcion Portas Lucatiel Lorett Michel Leroux
Party AP UDA PSD
Leader since 9 July 2017 4 March 2014 8 September 2017
Leader's seat Benedormo Cardigan Port d'Argois
Last election 34.5%[1] 23.0% 31.9%
Seats before 129[1] 123 173
Seats won 322 182 51
Seat change (Increase193) (Increase59) (Decrease122)
Popular vote 23,380,073 16,150,652 9,051,464
Percentage 45.7% 27.3% 15.3%
Swing Increase 11.2% Increase 4.3% Decrease 16.6%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  MDRJeanpaul.png MDRSpv.png
Leader Claude Foucault Jean-Paul Dumonde Rozenn Le Guen
Party MP PS SPV
Leader since 4 July 2006 5 April 2009 1 September 2015
Leader's seat Sudard Argois East None
Last election 5.1% 4.6% Did not stand
Seats before 5 4 0
Seats won 19 13 12
Seat change (Increase14) (Increase9) (Increase12)
Popular vote 2,660,315 2,148,716 1,005,718
Percentage 5.2% 4.2% 1.7%
Swing Increase 0.5% Decrease 0.2% Increase 1.7%

Constituency Seat results (left), Party list winners (right)

Prime Minister before election

Charles Vauban
PSD

Elected Prime Minister

Melcion Portas
AP

The Midrasian general election of 2017 on 14 September 2013 will elect the 68th Parliament of Midrasia since the Constitution of 1791. Each of the 300 constituencies across Midrasia will elect a delegate to the Public Assembly, whilst a further 300 seats will be filled by regional-list MPs based on the popular vote within each region of Midrasia. Members of the Senate will be appointed following the results of local elections held on the same day.

The election will be conducted under the mixed-member proportional system, being the first election within Midrasian history to utilise the system following the introduction of the voting reforms of 2014, which replaced the old first-past-the-post system used since the first election in 1791.

Following the conclusion of Charles Vauban's four-year term in 2013, elections are scheduled for 14th September 2013. Parliament was officially dissolved by the monarch five-weeks before this date to initiate the official campaign. Since April of 2017 the governing Social Democratic Party were involved in a scandal regarding the affairs of the Prime Minister and a number of other MPs across the political spectrum. This scandal ultimately culminated in the Midrasian Spring and the rise of a number of anti-corruption movements across the country, most notably Fight Against Corruption. The campaign also saw a number of defections from the Social Democratic Party and the formation of a wider electoral pact of the left which came to be known as the Progressive Alliance. The incumbent Prime Minister Vauban announced his resignation on 8 September 2017, meaning the Social Democratic Party will be led by deputy leader Michel Leroux for the remainder of the election campaign.

The election was won by the Progressive Alliance under Melcion Portas who attained a slim majority in both the Public Assembly and Senate. The Alydian Democratic Union was the second largest party, attaining 182 seats in the Public Assembly, a slight decrease in their previous total over the old system; futhermore, the party also lost 4 seats within the Senate. Midrasia First performed amicably, attaining 19 seats in the Public Assembly, their largest ever total, along with 4 seats in the Senate. The Vaellenian People's Party and Socialist Party also performed amicably, gaining seats in both houses. The election was a disaster for the Social Democratic Party who were relegated to the position of third party, raising questions of their ability to govern at the highest level. Whilst the victory of the Progressives was not too surprising, their acquisition of a majority in both houses utilising the new mixed-member proportional system raised questions about the 2014 voting reforms and whether it had truly achieved what it set out to do. Others criticised the systems equal representation for states in both the Senate and Public Assembly, calling for an overhaul of the system.

Election date and process

See also: Elections in Midrasia

As of the electoral reforms of the mid-1990s, Midrasian general elections are held on a fixed-term basis of every four years. As such, upon the conclusion of the Social Democrat-Liberal coalition's four-year term, Parliament was officially dissolved by the monarch on August 10, exactly one month before polling day. Initially due to the death of King Louis XII there was expectation that the election would be rescheduled to account for the period of national mourning and coronation of Eleanor II.[2] However, royal officials advised that the monarch maintain her commitment to hold elections on 20 September, as the period of national mourning fell outside of the official campaigning period.

As with all previous Midrasian general elections, each constituency in the country elects one member to represent it within the Public Assembly; whilst elections to the Senate are indirect and based off the results of regional council elections which take place on the same day as general elections. In contrast with previous years however, the 2017 election was the first to utilise a system of mixed-member proportional representation implemented as a result of the electoral reforms of the coalition government. As such, the number of constituencies was cut from 400 to 300, with a further 300 seats being allocated among the regions based upon the popular vote therein.

Voter eligibility

To vote in the general election, one had to be:

Individuals had to be registered to vote by midnight of 31 August. A person who has two homes (such as a university student who has a term-time address and lives at home during holidays) may be registered to vote at both addresses, as long as they are not in the same electoral area, but can vote in only one constituency at the general election.

Timetable

The key dates were:

10 August Formal dissolution of Parliament and beginning of 'official' campaigning
31 August Last day to file nomination papers, to register to vote, and to request a postal vote
1 September First live TV debate
8 September Main party leaders debate
14 September Polling day
18 September Parliament re-assembled
20 September State opening of Parliament

Contesting political parties

See also: List of political parties in Midrasia
Prime Minister Charles Vauban sought a second-term in office until his resignation in early September
Lucatiel Lorett was appointed leader of the UDA after the 2010 leadership challenge
Melcion Portas came to lead the Progressive Alliance after its formation in August

As of 31 August 2017, the deadline for standing in the general election, 152 political parties were officially registered across the country. Candidates who did not belong to a registered party could use an "independent" label, or no label at all. Only the three main parties, the Social Democrats, Alydian Democratic Union and Progressive Alliance fielded candidates in all 300 constituencies and 20 regions. The Vaellenian People's Party was the sole party with official representation to field candidates in only one region.

For years the Midrasian political system had been dominated by the Social Democratic Party and Alydian Democratic Union, supplying all the nations Prime Ministers since 1956. However, in recent years the Liberal League had been gaining significant traction, winning a total of 79 seats in the 2013 election, effectively breaking the two party monopoly. Furthermore, the rise of the Liberal League also precipitated the rise of a number of other smaller parties such as Midrasia First, Socialist Party and the Green Party. Poll ratings suggested that the Liberals would make significant gains in the election, whilst their coalition partners were suffering due to the ongoing scandal revolving around the Prime Minister. Whilst many initially expected another hung parliament, the defection of a number of PSD MPs to form their own party and the creation of the Progressive Alliance caused a considerable shift in the polls, with the Social Democrats taking a significant hit, effectively surrendering their position as a major political party to the Progressives.

Significant controversy arose regarding the status of a number of political parties within the election, especially in regards to the 'main leaders debate' which took place on 8 September 2017. Midrasia First which had gained significant traction in recent years called for its inclusion in the event as Mydrazia 1 had initially invited the leaders of the Liberal League and Fight Against Corruption to participate. This issue was resolved when the Progressive Alliance signalled it would only send one member to represent the entire electoral pact, taking up the position of the Liberals. Despite further protestations, Midrasia First were not included in the debate.

Main parties

  • Social Democratic Party: initially led by Charles Vauban and then Michel Leroux following the former's resignation. The Social Democrats were the larger party of the coalition government having won 173 seats at the 2013 election. The Social Democrats had been marred in controversy since the accusations of bribery and corruption levelled at the Prime Minister in April of 2017, suffering from a number of defections and ailing poll ratings.[3][4]
  • Alydian Democratic Union: led by Lucatiel Lorett, the leader of the opposition. The UDA had been in government between 1999 and 2009 however only won 123 seats at the 2013 election relegating the party to the opposition benches. The party had been fraught with considerable infighting and ideological division throughout its time in opposition; whilst a number of backbench MPs had become embroiled in a number of expenses scandals.
  • Progressive Alliance: led by Melcion Portas. The Progressive Alliance was formed as an electoral pact between the Liberal League, Fight Against Corruption, Independent Social Democrats and Green Party to contest the 2017 election. The pact quickly rose in the polls, gaining a significant following due to the ongoing political crisis.

Other parties

  • Liberty Party: led by Guiseppe Nicolando. The Liberty party had made significant gains throughout its short lived history, winning 3 seats at the 2013 election. However, efforts by the UDA to regain lost libertarian votes led Liberty to slip up within the polls.
  • Midrasia First: led by Claude Foucault. Midrasia First is the nations primary right-wing, nationalist party and had recently absorbed the ailing Midrasian National Party several months before the election.[5] In recent times the party has gained a considerable following, primarily from anti-immigration circles such as the alt-right and Identitarian movements.
  • Pirate Party: led by Manuel Manns. The Pirate party contested the 2017 election in ten seats across the country. The party's campaign focused on political corruption and copyright laws.
  • Republican Party: led by Jacques Robespierre. The Republican Party gained a noticeable boost in the polls following the death of Louis XII and calls for the abolition of the Midrasian monarchy. The party has called for a referendum on the status of the monarchy, however otherwise support the policies of the Progressive Alliance.
  • Socialist Party: led by Jean-Paul Dumonde. The Socialist party made significant gains in the 2013 election, winning a total of 5 seats. With the current crisis gripping the Social Democrats, the party has received a noticeable boost in the polls.
  • Vaellenian People's Party: led by Rozenn Le Guen. Previously a sub-section of the Social Democrats, the SPV ended their 100 year electoral agreement to campaign as an independent party in the Vaellenian region. The party has called for greater powers for the Berghelling government, however has not ruled out the possibility of the referendum on Vaellenian independence.
  • Workers' Party of Midrasia: led by Gerard Luboux. The Workers' party has suffered considerably in recent years, winning only 1 seat in the 2013 election. Recent scandals involving party officials and the rise of the Socialist Party have ensured the party's poll rating remain at their lowest point for ten years.

Policy platforms

The main three parties contesting the election outlined the following main aims:

Social Democratic Party

  • Bolster funding for local infrastructure initiatives
  • Introduce a national review into press standards
  • Creation of a directly elected Senate
  • Build upon the success of the Asuran Community through wider political cooperation

Alydian Democratic Union

  • Introduce a 'triple lock' guarantee on national pensions
  • Reduction in the headline rate of corporation tax to 25 cents
  • Introduce a 2-year residency requirement for migrants seeking to claim benefits
  • A commitment to balancing the national budget by 2020

Progressive Alliance

  • Constitutional reform to increase oversight on the role of Prime Minister
  • Legalisation of same-sex marriage
  • Introduction of a windfall tax on excessive corporate profits
  • Reform of the 40% tax rate to create a more progressive taxation system

Opinion polls

2017

Fieldwork date Polling firm AP PSD UDA LL PV LCLC PS MP SPV Other Lead
14 September 2017 General election results 45.7 15.3 27.3 As PA 4.4 5.6 1.7 ~1 18.4
13 September IPSO 42 12 31 5 6 3 1 11
13 September Opinione 44 15 27 5 6 2 1 17
13 September Vox Populi 39 13 33 4 7 4 ~1 6
10-12 September Opinione 43 14 30 5 5 2 1 13
9-10 September Vox Populi 41 14 29 5 7 4 ~1 12
9 September IPSO 42 15 28 6 5 3 1 14
9 September Opinione 46 15 26 5 5 2 1 20
8 September Three-way leaders debate between Michel Leroux, Lucatiel Lorett and Melcion Portas
5-7 September Vox Populi 40 10 32 As PA 9 5 3 1 8
1-3 September Opinione 43 8 34 7 4 3 1 9
1 September IPSO 39 12 34 5 5 4 1 5
29-31 August Vox Populi 41 11 31 7 6 3 1 10
28-30 August Opinione 45 8 32 6 5 3 1 13
28 August IPSO 40 11 35 5 6 3 ~1 5
25-27 August Vox Populi Did not exist 10 34 17 4 9 8 6 3 9 17
22-24 August Opinione 10 32 21 4 9 7 5 3 9 11
18-20 August Vox Populi 11 32 20 6 8 6 5 3 9 12
18 August IPSO 12 34 19 5 8 5 6 3 8 15
14-17 August Opinione 10 31 24 4 8 6 5 3 9 7
11-13 August Vox Populi 8 31 25 4 8 7 5 3 9 6
10 August Dissolution of Parliament
9 August IPSO Did not exist 8 30 26 5 5 4 5 3 12 4
7-9 August Opinione 7 29 27 3 8 6 5 3 12 2
5-6 August Vox Populi 9 30 26 4 6 5 4 3 13 4
5 August PSD Split
2-4 August Vox Populi Did not exist 20 29 30 3 6 5 4 2 1 1
31-2 July/August Opinione 21 29 27 3 7 5 4 3 1 2
28-30 July Vox Populi 22 31 27 4 5 4 3 3 1 4
28 July IPSO 20 30 28 4 5 4 5 3 1 2
25-27 July Opinione 20 32 27 2 7 4 4 3 1 5
21-23 July Vox Populi 20 29 27 4 6 4 5 3 2 2
18-20 July Opinione 21 30 28 2 6 5 4 3 1 2
15-17 July Vox Populi 19 27 29 4 7 6 4 3 1 2
14-16 July Opinione 20 29 30 2 6 4 5 3 1 1
11-13 July Vox Populi 19 30 29 3 7 4 4 3 1 1
10 July IPSO 19 30 28 3 7 5 4 3 1 2
7-9 July Opinione 20 31 29 2 6 4 4 3 1 2
4-6 July Vox Populi 22 31 28 3 5 4 4 3 ~1 3
1-3 July Opinione 19 31 28 2 7 5 4 3 1 3

In Midrasia, there are regular opinion polls during the whole of the legislative period. Midrasia's major polling agencies are IPSO, Opinione and Vox Populi. September 2017 opinion polls suggested that the Progressive Alliance would be the largest party with around 42% of the vote allowing the electoral alliance to form a majority government. This greatly contrasted with the beginning of the campaigning period where the Alydian Democratic Union polled highest, although would be several seats short of forming a majority government.

Results

The results of the election saw the Progressive Alliance become the largest block within the Public Assembly with 322 seats, securing an absolute majority and allowing the electoral alliance to form a government. Within the alliance, the Liberal League secured 164 seats, Green Party 8, Fight Against Corruption 84 and the Independent Social Democrats 65. The second largest party within the Assembly was the Alydian Democratic Union with 182 seats. The Social Democratic Party dropped to the position of third party with only 51 seats.

Midrasia First was able to secure a total of 19 seats, making the party a considerable force within the Public Assembly; whilst the Socialist Party was able to increase their total to 13. The Vaellenian People's Party managed to win 12 seats in the Assembly, despite only contending elections in four regions. The smallest party within the Assembly is the Liberty Party who were only able to secure 1 seat in Almiaro. The election marked a considerable shift away from the traditional model seen in previous Midrasian elections, with the decline of the Social Democrats and the amalgamation of a number of smaller parties into a broadly centrist coalition in the Progressive Alliance. The election also saw the Workers' Party of Midrasia eliminated from Parliament, with their last remaining constituency seat in Rizá West being lost to the Socialists.

322 51 13 12 1 19 182
AP PSD PS SPV MP UDA


Circle frame.svg

Votes, of total, by party

  UDA (27.3%)
  Social Democrats (15.3%)
  Midrasia First (5.2%)
  Socialist Party (4.2%)
  SPV (1.7%)
  Liberty (0.6%)

Full results for the 2017 Midrasian general election are as follows:

e • d 
Parties Votes % Seats Change
Progressive Alliance 23,380,073 45.7 322 Increase 193
Alydian Democratic Union 16,150,652 27.3 182 Increase 59
Social Democrats 9,051,464 15.3 51 Decrease 122
Midrasia First 2,660,315 5.2 19 Increase 14
Socialist Party 2,148,716 4.2 13 Increase 9
Vaellenian People's Party 869,718 1.7 12 Increase 12
Liberty 306,959 0.6 3 Decrease 2
Invalid votes 51,160 0.1 N/A
Total 54,619,057 100% 600

Aftermath

Portas visiting the Lotrič protests after election day

Government formation

Following their election victory, the Progressives under Melcion Portas quickly moved to form a government. Under the terms of their electoral agreement, cabinet positions would be distributed to members of the pact based on the number of seats each received within the election. Despite this, a number of positions were reserved for specific parties under the terms of the agreement. The position of Prime Minister would go to Melcion Portas of the LCLC, whilst the deputy Prime Minister would be Jacques Magule of the Liberal League. Environment secretary and Energy secretary would also be reserved for the Green Party, whilst the Cheif Whip would come from the largest party in the agreement. In all, the LCLC took 4 cabinet positions, the Green Party 2, Independent Social Democrats 4 and Liberal League 9.

Leadership challenges

In the immediate aftermath of the election, question was raised over the security of Lucatiel Lorett's position as leader of the Alydian Democratic Union. Whilst the party had increased its share of the vote from 2013, it had failed to enter government and under the new seat calculations actually had a smaller percentage of seats in both the Senate and Public Assembly. Whilst a number of UDA MPs came out in support of Lorett, noting her work in mending the ideological divisions of the party; others called for a 'fresh face' to lead the party in the coming years. No official leadership candidates have come forward; and 80 MPs have sent a letter of support to Lorett, noting that the party requires a period of stable leadership if it is to reverse its fortunes.

Following the results, Michel Leroux officially announced his resignation as leader of the Social Democratic Party; noting that whilst he was an interim leader, he had received the full backing of his party throughout the election campaign, thanking the party for treating him with the utmost respect despite his position. Despite this, Leroux noted the necessity of a leadership challenge to ensure the party could recover from its dismal performance. Leroux did not officially rule out running for leader and a number of MPs had indicated they would be willing to support his candidacy. Other confirmed candidates include Julia Brouse and Tobie Nollinger.

Financial markets

In the aftermath of the exit poll international markets strengthened at the sign of the formation of a majority government. The Midrasian Stock Exchange rose by 4.2% on September 15. The Ducat also rose against other international currencies. The general financial outlook was one of positivity, with investors suggesting that a more stable and secure political situation in Midrasia would lead to greater future investment and consumer confidence. Shares in the Diluns Banking Group rose by 2.2% whilst tech firms such as Moteur and Tectus saw an increase of up to 5%.

Protests

Main article: Midrasian Spring

In the aftermath of the election, a number of protesters came out in support of the new government. The day following the election results Melcion Portas directly addressed crowds gathered at Berthou Park calling the result a 'victory for accountable and effective government', and hoping that the Progressive Alliance could evoke the spirit and power of the Midrasian Spring. A number of key activists and campaigners openly stated that they support the Portas government and its efforts to bring about more transparency in government; however many noted that the Progressives 'must take action rather than stating mere rhetoric'.Socialist supporters among the protesters also celebrated the increase in support the party received. With a number of trade unionists from the CGT calling the result 'a stepping stone to reversing the legacy of the Borgogne era'. Whilst many protesters dispersed following the election, large numbers remain behind in areas such as Berthou Park.

Furthermore, following the election results a number of counter-protests were organised by groups such as Midrasia First and the Identitarian movement who had also seen a boost in support from the election. A number of clashes were reported throughout election night, however no major incidents occurred and police only made 12 arrests.

International reaction

(your nation here. please alphabetise)

  •  Aquidneck: Prime Minister Ruperto Petrillo welcomed the new government and congratulated them on their electoral success. The Aquidish government updated its travel warnings and removed passages about avoiding the protests in Midrasian cities.
  •  Crylante: Jenný Anadottir made a statement stating that she wished the new Midrasian government the best of luck in their affairs.
  • The Community of Pan-Slavic Nations Dreyvisevich : The government of Dreyvisevich fully supports the new Midrasian government and hopes to encourage ties to Midrasia.
  •  Tyronova: Tyronova welcomed the marginally more stable government for Midrasia, but frowned upon the Progressive Alliance's more libertarian policies, especially those with regards to same-sex marriage.

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 Includes 2013 results for Liberal League, Green Party and 40 PSD defectors
  2. "King Pronounced Dead at 95". The Royal Standard. 20 July 2017. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=388478&start=225#p32175659. Retrieved 13 September 2017. 
  3. "Portas Announces Defection to LCLC". The Royal Standard. 20 July 2017. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=388478&start=200#p31973486. Retrieved 13 September 2017. 
  4. "PSD MPs to Cut Ties to Vauban". The Royal Standard. 5 August 2017. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=388478&start=225#p32276475. Retrieved 13 September 2017. 
  5. "Nationalists Announce Merger with Midrasia First". The Royal Standard. 2 April 2017. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=388478&start=100#p31448385. Retrieved 13 September 2017.