Midrasian general election, 2013

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Midrasian general election, 2013
Midrasia
← 2009 12 September 2013 2017 →

All 400 seats in the Public Assembly
201 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 42,349,697(69.4%)

  First party Second party
  Charles Vauban.jpg Ranieri.png
Leader Charles Vauban Mylos Ranieri
Party PSD UDA
Leader since 16 May 2011 4 May 2007
Leader's seat Sidona Peugeot
Seats won 173 (Increase54) 123 (Decrease79)

  Third party Fourth party
  FortinJeanFrançois BQ.jpg 99318748.jpg
Leader Jacques Magule Michelle Blanc
Party LL PV
Leader since 5 June 2012 12 July 2011
Leader's seat Azure Neupont
Seats won 79 (Increase23) 10 (Increase1)

Colours denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results.

Prime minister before election

Mylos Ranieri
Alydian Democratic Union

Elected Prime minister

Charles Vauban
PSD

The Midrasian general election of 2013 on 12 September 2013 elected the 35th Parliament of Midrasia since the Constitution of 1791. Each of the 400 constituencies across Midrasia elected a delegate to the Public Assembly, with members of the Senate being appointed following the results of local elections held on the same day.

The election was conducted under the first-past-the-post system, being the last election within Midrasian history to utilise the system before the introduction of the voting reforms of 2014, which replaced the system with mixed-member proportionality.

Earlier within the year, the governing Alydian Democratic Union announced their intentions to wait out the remainder of their parliamentary term, refusing to call early elections in light of low polling numbers. Elections were called by King Luix VII in mid-August 2013 following the conclusion of Prime Minister Mylos Ranieri's four-year term, scheduled for September of the same year. The election took place following fourteen years of consecutive rule by the UDA. Polls indicated an all-time low level of support for government, not seen since 1963. In contrast polls indicated high levels of support for the resurgent Social Democrats and Liberal League, with estimates placing the Social Democrats only 7 seats short of an overall majority.

The election was a major victory for the Social Democrats and Liberals, gaining 54 and 23 seats respectively. The election also saw the largest ever defeat of the UDA, with party leader Mylos Ranieri resigning only hours after the announcement of the election results. Despite the gains made by the PSD, results were lacking compared with polls which put the party on 194 seats. For the Liberals, the election heralded the party's resurgence in mainstream politics, opening negotiations with the PSD to enter government for the first time since the late 1950s.

Negotiations following the election resulted in the current governing Coalition between the Social Democrats and Liberal League, with a working majority of 51.

Campaign

Parliament was officially dissolved on August 15th by Luix XII, with the four weeks of campaigning following thereafter. Before the election had even began, leaked recordings surfaced, detailing a number of UDA MPs voicing their concerns with the leadership of Mylos Ranieri at a party fundraiser. The tapes, which quickly reached national media only worsened the party's already poor standing and sowed further discontent within the social Conservative wings of the UDA.

Three televised debates took place throughout the election campaign, televised on TV1, La Monde and Ciel respectively. The first debate included only the leaders of the Social Democrats (Charles Vauban) and the Alydian Democratic Union (Mylos Ranieri). The second debate included the third largest party, the Liberal League led by Jacques Magule; whilst the final debate, five days before the election, included all parties which currently had representation within the Public Assembly.

A number of gaffes also followed the leadership of the Midrasian National Party, with leader Jean-Paul Carré forced to flee a planned rally in Argois after being harassed by a number of antifascist and socialist organisations. Further, the leader was lambasted at the third debate when his figures had inflated migrant crime rates in Mydroll by up to 200%.

Policy platforms

The main three parties contesting the election outlined the following main aims:

Social Democratic Party

  • Increase overall funding of Social Services
  • Implement direct elections for the Senate
  • Increase government investment in high-tech manufacturing
  • Increase cooperation between Midrasia's neighbours

Alydian Democratic Union

  • Commitment to not increasing taxation
  • Introduce harsher sentences for drug-related offences and public disorder
  • Continue to promote the cause of mental health in the coming Health Service review
  • Increase funding for the military and counter-terror initiatives

Liberal League

  • Change the electoral system to a mixed-member proportionality
  • Overhaul the welfare system to place greater emphasis on education
  • Reduce university tuition rates to Đ3,000
  • Invest more powers in local authorities and councils

Opinion polls

Opinion polls before the election showed considerable support for the Social Democrats and Liberals in the run up to the election. By contrast the UDA had fallen considerably since 2007, at which time they barely clung to their parliamentary majority. Only five polls in the four year run up to the election showed a lead for the UDA.

The Social Democrats polled highest, with support ranging from around 34% to highs of around 43% in September 2011 following the Oyonax by-election. Similarly, the Liberal League maintained a steady stream of support at around 27%.

The exit poll released at 10pm on Election Day showed a hung parliament as the most likely outcome, with the PSD only 9 seats short of an overall majority. The UDA was expected to fall to 111 seats, marking their largest ever defeat, whilst the Liberal League was expected to take 72 seats. Exit polls also predicted the PSD to become the largest party in the Senate, but being several seats short of a majority. The UDA were similarly expected to score poorly, only retaining around 30 seats. Minor parties were expected to make some gains, with the Green Party expected to reach 10 seats in total, bolstered by the recent environmental scandal involving Tundre petrole. The MNP were expected to lose out to Midrasia First, whilst Liberty was expected to return 3 seats and the Workers' party to lose out to the Socialists.


The Exit poll showed the outlook of parliament to be as follows:

e • d 
Parties Seats Change
Social Democrats 192 Increase 73
Alydian Democratic Union 111 Decrease 91
Liberal League 72 Increase 16
Green Party 10 Increase 1
Socialist Party 5 Increase 3
Midrasia First 4 Steady
Liberty 3 Increase 1
Midrasian National Party 2 Decrease 2
Workers' Party of Midrasia 1 Decrease 1

Results

The results of the election saw the PSD gain 54 seats, with 173 in total, thus allowing the party to become the largest party in the Assembly. Despite this success, it was considerably short of the 192 seats the exit poll had suggested. This was put down to high support for the PSD in already safe constituencies. Similarly, pollsters had underestimated the stickiness of UDA postal voters which had not been included in the exit poll.

The Liberal League also made considerable gains with 79 seats, the party's most successful electoral performance. The party was even able to outperform the exit poll, with 7 extra seats than expected. The UDA performed marginally better than exit polls had indicated with 123 seats, 12 more than had been predicted. Despite this, the election still proved to be the worst defeat in the party's recent history. Minor parties made significant gains within the election, with the Green Party reaching a total of 10 seats, matching exit poll predictions. The Workers' Party lost its once 'safe' seat of Walden-Faldoux to the rising Socialist Party, who were able to secure 4 seats at the election, one fewer than expected.

173 79 10 4 3 5 123
PSD LL PV UDA
Circle frame.svg

Seats, of total, by party

  Social Democrats (43.25%)
  UDA (30.75%)
  Liberal League (19.75%)
  Green Party (2.5%)
  Midrasia First (1.25%)
  Liberty (0.75%)
  PNM (0.5%)
  Workers' Party (0.25%)

Full results for the 2013 Midrasian general election are as follows:

e • d 
Parties Votes % Seats Change
Social Democrats 13,142,561 31.9 173 Increase 54
Alydian Democratic Union 9,475,828 23.0 123 Decrease 79
Liberal League 8,875,839 21.5 79 Increase 23
Green Party 4,531,918 11.0 10 Increase 1
Midrasia First 3,027,610 5.1 5 Increase 1
Socialist Party 2,101,162 4.6 4 Increase 2
Liberty 700,387 1.7 3 Increase 1
Midrasian National Party 288,395 0.7 2 Decrease 2
Workers' Party of Midrasia 123,598 0.3 1 Decrease 1
Invalid votes 82,399 0.2 N/A
Total 42,349,697 100% 400

Aftermath

As the largest party following the election with 173 seats, the Social Democratic Party led by Charles Vauban had the first chance to form a government. Talks were initiated with the Liberal League, the third largest party with 79 seats to form a coalition government. Mere hours after the election results were announced, both party's committed themselves to a coalition, with an agreement reached between the PSD and Liberals. As part of the agreement, the government would agree to implement electoral reform, and give a number of key cabinet positions to members of the Liberal League. Furthermore, the government agreed to follow the Liberal's proposed welfare reforms.

Immediately following the election results, UDA leader Mylos Ranieri resigned as party leader after overseeing the party's biggest electoral loss in its history. Ranieri would temporarily be replaced by deputy leader Henri Vire, until the appointment of Lucatiel Lorett following a leadership election. The party's defeat exacerbated existing tensions within the party between moderates and social conservatives over the future direction of the party. This division would spill over into the 2016 Asuran community elections where the party came third behind the Liberals and PSD.

Whilst the election heralded considerable success for the smaller Midrasian parties, this was not the case for the Midrasian National Party which was reduced to three seats in the Assembly, prompting the resignation of party leader Jean-Paul Carré. He would be replaced by Patrice Noutalle the following year who helped negotiate the party's merger with Midrasia First in early 2017.