Greater Insula Feran Conflict

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Greater Insula Feran Conflict
Great IF Conresized2.png
From top: Aquitaynian fighters launch from the deck of the HMS Orion; a patrol takes a break north of Corvus; an IED explosion in Dovadola.
Date December 28th, 2013 - Present
Location Insula Fera
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Borders expand northeastward and southward, establishment of New Pangus as the unitary state in northern Insula Fera.
Belligerents
 Aquitayne
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Symphonia

 Dungeyland
 Polarus
 Blackhelm Confederacy

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Heraldan Rebels
Commanders and leaders
Aquitayne Samuel Reich
Aquitayne Halvor Hummel
Aquitayne James Zaeir
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Jacob vi Kiramashi-Reich
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Empress Seondok vi Kiramashi-Reich
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Akira vi Contruum
Dangish Empire Queen Ellen
Dangish Empire Richard Scylla
Blackhelm Confederacy Octavius Eaglebrand
Blackhelm Confederacy Julius Greenwall
Polarus Sheikh Yabuti Ondadansflo
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Neemar Loringian
Strength
250,000 troops

 Aquitayne:
114,000
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Symphonia:
86,250

 Dungeyland:
47,400
 Polarus
350
 Blackhelm Confederacy
1,500
2 corvettes

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Heraldan Rebels:
17,000-40,000 fighters
Casualties and losses
Coalition: 6,689 (4,826 Aquitaynian, 1,863 Symphonia)
11,212 wounded (7,561 Aquitaynian, 3,561 Symphonian)
EATA Forces 32 (Dangish)
126 wounded (Dangish)
Rebels:
13,200 (estimated)
6,861 wounded (estimated)

The Greater Insula Feran Conflict is a protracted armed conflict that began with the 2013 Invasion of Pangus by an Aquitaynian-led coalition. The invasion force ultimately retook the major metropolitan areas of the region and restored law and order to the island. However, an insurgency swept over both Pangus and Prudensia, lead by the Heraldan Rebels, to oppose the occupying force and the post-invasion new Pangeian government. An estimated 40,000 to 120,000 Pangeians and Prudensians were killed before military intervention occurred, and an estimated 25,000 to 40,000 were killed due to the armed conflict that ensued afterward.

The invasion began on 28 December 2013, with Aquitayne, joined by their United Kingdom ally Symphonia, launching their shock and awe campaign against known insurgent sites and seizing large metropolitan areas. Due to the classified nature of the invasion, there is no clear evidence to support rumors that the Dangish Empire initiated the invasion prior to the United Kingdom's intervention. Heraldan forces were quickly overwhelmed as coalition and Dangish forces swept into both Pangus and Prudensia. However, disputes between the governments of the occupying forces, namely Aquitayne and the Dangish Empire, lead to the mismanagement of the occupation and ultimately created the East-West Divide, which is largely blamed for the huge separation of families in the aftermath of the invasion.

The Aquitaynian King based the rationale for the invasion and subsequent occupation on the rising humanitarian crisis that was becoming ever more present after the fall of the Imperial Spartanian Empire. The Dangish government disputed the casus belli, believing that the invasion was a ruse for territorial expansion by the United Kingdom, namely to solve Symphonia's rising population problem.

As a result of the occupation, Prudensia held elections in June of 2016, ultimately electing to join Pangus and create the new nation of New Pangus, along with elected representation and a head of government. In early 2016, a large insurgent campaign was launched against the occupying forces, with the 2/27 Attacks being carried out and claimed by Heraldan Rebels.

Background

Human rights crisis

The most cited casus belli for the invasion was the ongoing human rights violations being perpetrated by the Heraldan Rebels. Evidence collected by Aquitaynian intelligence agencies, verified by their Symphonian counterparts and in some instances broadcast via HAM radio, showed that the rebel faction that had destroyed the region's government was actively murdering civilians and anyone who opposed their rule of law. Subsequently, major warlords and militia groups sprung up across the region, complicating the invasion plans. An unnamed source within the Aquitaynian Ministry of Defense noted before the invasion that, "we really have no idea who's on our side and who isn't. Right now, in the eyes of the law, everyone is a combatant - even if they've just banded together to survive."

Ultimately, some estimates put the death toll anywhere between 40,000 and 120,000 people resulting from direct conflict and intentional killing after the collapse of the Imperial Spartanian Empire. Some critics of the conflict have levied the accusations of war crimes against Samuel Reich and James Zaeir, due to the high civilian casualty rates that followed the invasion.

Pre-war intelligence

Before the onset of the war, Aquitayne conducted highly classified reconnaissance missions over Pangus and Prudensia. These missions were cited in the HMRS report outlining the current situation in the region, which was cited by both the King and Prime Minister as the conclusive paper outlining the necessities for intervention. The paper was slightly redacted, but ultimately showed that mass graves and seemingly random attacks on towns and suburbs were taking place.

Though it has never been confirmed, there are reports from high-ranking Aquitaynian and Symphonian officials that place Aquitaynian Special Forces in Pangus well before the invasion ever took place. This would explain why certain military installations were not targeted and certain militia groups were not arrested during the major stages of the invasion. Royal Service agents were reported to be on the ground collecting intelligence before the invasion began, and reportedly remained well after the invasion had concluded.

Preparations

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Prime Minister James Zaeir discusses the potential invasion in early December, 2013, to the Policy Network Talks in Nikolia.

While there had been some earlier discussions about military action against the Imperial Spartanian Empire, King Samuel Reich waited until September of 2014 to begin drumming up support for some type of intervention on the island. Reich formally began garnering the support of the international community in November of 2014, with Aquitayne's major ally Symphonia agreeing to the intervention. The Tel Al-Riyah Pact had not been signed at the time of the invasion, but long-standing good-will between Aquitayne and Riysa had permitted the latter to agree to a limited role in the invasion and occupation, opting for a behind-the-scenes special operations forces approach. While the specifics of Riysa's contributions to the invasion are classified, some experts estimate around 3,000 special forces soldiers were used.

The rest of the international community, however, was less than happy about Aquitayne's seemingly unilateral action in advancing into the territory. The most notable opposition to the invasion was from the Dangish Empire, who immediately threatened to declare war on Aquitayne if United Kingdom troops remained in the Imperial Spartanian Empire by a certain time.[1] Fortunately for all parties involved, the Dangish were talked down: a compromise organized by the Blackhelm Confederacy had EATA observers permitted alongside the United Kingdom troops,[2] to which end the Dangish conceded not to declare a state of open war against the United Kingdom.

The nature of the rising tensions that had escalated between the two powers leading up to the invasion of the former Imperial Spartanian Empire derived from two documents: the Osborne Doctrine, and the recent Dangish white paper on Maintaining the Peace.[3] The Dangish Empire was in a unique position to secure EATA interests in the region while shifting the nature of the strength between nations radically. Before the invasion would take place, however, the Tel Al-Riyah Pact would be formed,[4] solidifying the Riysan interest in Insula Fera and creating the finalized coalition that would conduct the invasion in 2013. Tensions across the Mare Ferum, however, remained high. In an address to the Symphonian Congress, Emperor Jacob von Kiramashi-Reich, Samuel Reich's younger brother, asserted that "Should Her Majesty’s Government in the Dangish Empire and the government of the Blackhelm Confederacy continue to push for ever tighter and stringent demands from the United Kingdom, I can only say that negotiations will only get harder to be definite. His Majesty, King Samuel Reich of Aquitayne and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has already made it clear that further instances of interference cannot be tolerated, and Symphonia will only back his statements further.”[5]

Aquitaynian soldiers with the 2nd Regiment, Operational Maneuver Response Group, would be the first to enter Pangus before the invasion began, in November of 2013. They conducted scout reconaissance and created a detailed layout of the landscape before the main invasion force entered the country. They, alongside other Aquitaynian and Riysan special forces units, would infiltrate the population and create a detailed analysis of the culture and important figureheads, such as warlords, that would need to be taken into account if the intervention were to be successful. Not only this, but the roots of the New Pangus Defense Forces can be traced here, as the GROM operators began training some civilians to use heavy weaponry against the Heraldan Rebels.

Another crucial mission the GROM operators undertook was establishing contact with the former Spartanian military installations. Most of them had been abandoned and ransacked for their heavy machinery and weapons, but there were a few that still had a vestige of the former professional military force. Most commanders understood the situation and were willing to assist the soldiers, however there were few instances of commanders being unwilling to rescind their command, even under the circumstances.

Opposition to invasion

Anti-war protestors march on the Magnus Magnatus in early December, 2013, protesting proposed Aquitaynian and Symphonian intervention on Insula Fera.

Opposition to the invasion was strong throughout parts of Astyria. Mostly concentrated in the Dangish Empire, large protests were scheduled denouncing the proposed invasion by the United Kingdom. In Aquitayne, small rallies were held in multiple cities in the days before the invasion took place, with an estimated 50,000 people participating in total. Human rights groups such as the Astyrian Red Cross did not comment on the invasion, but would be seen after the surge in humanitarian capacities.

The most potent opposition to the invasion was by the Dangish Empire's government, who threatened all out war if the United Kingdom failed to meet their demands. The Dangish Empire remained the most persistent opponent to U.K actions throughout the period leading up to the invasion. Reportedly, the Dangish even went so far as to begin the invasion of Pangus prior to alerting Aquitaynian military authorities. The EATA as a whole did not denounce the invasion itself, but rather denounced the United Kingdom for taking unilateral action without consulting foreign nations.

In 2015, a former Aquitaynian military commander, Grand Field Marshal Taylor Niemi, stated that the invasion of Pangus and Prudensia was "the highest failure of the Aquitaynian military in this century." He believed that the crown was trying to use the situation to bolster its military presence and projection throughout the region rather than legitimately trying to help the people of Pangus and Prudensia. Other world leaders would criticize the invasion and subsequent occupation throughout 2014, though the United Kingdom never responded or entertained any of the allegations.

Invasion

Post-invasion phase

2014

Beginnings of insurgency

Capturing rebel leaders

Second Battle of Corvus

2015

Astyrian Red Cross abuses

Aquitaynian troop surge

Cape Town shootings

Symphonian protests

Axalon private security controversy

Domestic United Kingdom tensions

2016

Insurgent resurgence

February 27 attacks

Prudensian elections

New Pangus government formed

Dangish withdrawal

2017

United Kingdom withdrawal

Aftermath - post U.K withdrawal

Casualty estimates

Criticism and cost

Cost

References

  1. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=19376034#p19376034
  2. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=19384190#p19384190
  3. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=18432884#p18432884
  4. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=19412802#p19412802
  5. https://forum.nationstates.net/viewtopic.php?p=19418958#p19418958